Proving if dogs are source of E-coli in Lake Massapoag – or how I saw the Nobel vanish in thin air.

Yesterday  while trying to fall asleep I got a really bright idea – at least I though so – it was almost like I could see the Nobel price in the distance.

The subject at hand was E-coli in our beloved Lake Massapoag,. Dogs are banned from the lake half of the year, but according to the evidence I can find, dogs are not a major source of E-coli.

So while I was trying to fall a sleep I got the idea on how we, once and for all, could prove whether  the dogs were the culprit or if their presence didn’t make any difference at all.

The laws in Massachusetts demands that the water quality on the public beaches is monitored, hence we should be able to see how the E-coli level varied over the year, and we know exactly when dogs were allowed at the park or not.  If the dogs made a difference it should be reflected in the data, and we should with some certainty be able to determine if dogs were the culprit.  If the graph would look like the one below, we could surely conclude that dogs were a problem.
On the other hand if the graph would look like the second one, the dogs would be cleared.  I felled so good about myself and was sure that the Nobel price would be within reach – I could hardly sleep!

So early the next morning I went to town to get hold of the data, only to see the Nobel price vanish in thin air.  I was told they only test the lake during the 3 summer-months and for the last 25 years, no dogs had been at the lake in that period !




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